Free Thought

Cognitive Biases: Base Rate Fallacy and Conjunction Fallacy

November 8, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that can lead to errors in judgment. Two common biases are the base rate fallacy and the conjunction fallacy.

Base Rate Fallacy

The base rate fallacy occurs when people overestimate the likelihood of an event based on specific information, while ignoring the overall probability of the event. This can lead to faulty decision-making and inaccurate judgments.

Example: Imagine you’re told that a rare disease affects 1 in 1,000 people. You’re also told that a new diagnostic test is 99% accurate. If you test positive for the disease, what is the probability that you actually have it?

Many people would intuitively believe that the probability is very high (around 99%), but this is a fallacy. The actual probability is much lower, due to the low base rate of the disease.

How to avoid the base rate fallacy:

  • Consider the overall probability: Think about the likelihood of an event occurring in general, rather than focusing solely on specific information.
  • Seek objective data: Gather information from multiple sources to get a more accurate picture of the situation.
  • Be skeptical of anecdotes: Avoid drawing conclusions based on personal stories or anecdotes.

Conjunction Fallacy

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people believe that the conjunction of two events is more likely than one of the events alone. This can lead to overestimating the probability of complex events.  

Logical Fallacies: Non Sequitur and Masked-Man

October 12, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Logical fallacies are common errors in reasoning that can undermine the strength of an argument. Two such fallacies, “non sequitur” and “masked-man,” are often used to manipulate or persuade others.

Non Sequitur

A non sequitur is a Latin phrase that means “it does not follow.” This fallacy occurs when a conclusion does not logically follow from the premises. In other words, the argument is irrelevant or unconnected.

Example:

  • “I like ice cream. Therefore, I should be a politician.”

This argument is a non sequitur because there is no logical connection between liking ice cream and being a politician.

Masked-Man

The masked-man fallacy, also known as the “substitution of identicals,” occurs when someone assumes that two things are identical simply because they have the same properties.

Example:

  • “I know that John is wearing a mask. I also know that the masked man robbed the bank. Therefore, John robbed the bank.”

This argument is a masked-man fallacy because it assumes that just because two individuals have the same property (wearing a mask), they must be the same person.

Both non sequitur and masked-man fallacies can be difficult to spot, as they often appear to be valid arguments at first glance. However, by carefully examining the premises and conclusion, you can identify these fallacies and avoid being misled by faulty reasoning.

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Where are we now?

September 5, 2024 / / 0 Comments

“Where Slavery is, there Liberty cannot be; and where Liberty is, there Slavery cannot be.”

-Sukarno

Remember our scale from maximum freedom to slavery? So where are the people of the US on this scale?

First let’s look at how the libertarian views freedom again:

  • No government interference: Individuals are free from any form of government control, including laws, regulations, or taxation.
  • Self-governance: Individuals are responsible for governing themselves, making their own choices, and managing their own affairs.
  • No coercion: Individuals cannot be coerced or forced to do anything against their will.
  • Individual sovereignty: Each individual is considered a sovereign entity, with the ultimate authority over their own life and actions.

A libertarian believes anarchy is not chaos and that individual freedom is maximized in an anarchic society. They base this on several key principles:

  1. Individualism: Libertarians emphasize individualism, believing that individuals are rational and capable of making their own choices. They argue that people are more likely to act responsibly when they have freedom and autonomy.
  2. Spontaneous Order: Libertarians believe in the concept of spontaneous order, which suggests that complex social systems can emerge from the interactions of individuals pursuing their own interests. They argue that markets and other social institutions can develop without centralized authority.
  3. Non-Aggression Principle: This principle states that individuals should not initiate force or fraud against others. Libertarians believe that this principle, if universally followed, would create a peaceful and harmonious society without the need for government.
  4. Limited Government: Libertarians argue that government intervention often leads to unintended consequences and erodes individual freedom. They believe that a limited government, or even no government at all, would allow individuals to flourish and create a more prosperous and just society.
  5. Private Property Rights: Libertarians strongly support private property rights, arguing that individuals have the right to own and control their own property without interference from the government or others. They believe that this encourages economic activity and innovation.

In summary, libertarians believe that anarchy is not chaos because:

  • Individuals are rational and capable of self-governance.
  • Spontaneous order can emerge from the interactions of individuals.
  • The non-aggression principle can prevent violence and conflict.
  • Government intervention is often harmful and unnecessary.
  • Private property rights are essential for individual freedom and prosperity.

On the other hand, slavery is the epitome of government control.

Slavery represents the ultimate form of government control over individual liberty.

Here’s a breakdown of how this occurs:

  1. Complete Deprivation of Freedom:
    • Physical: Enslaved individuals have no control over their bodies or movements. They can be bought, sold, or forced into labor against their will.
    • Mental: Their thoughts, choices, and even family relationships are subject to the whims of their owners.
  2. Forced Labor:
    • Economic exploitation: Enslaved individuals are forced to work without compensation, providing economic benefits to their owners.
    • Lack of choice: They have no say in the type of work they do, the conditions they endure, or the hours they labor.
  3. Denial of Basic Rights:
    • Human dignity: Slavery strips individuals of their fundamental human rights, including the right to life, liberty, and property.
    • Legal status: Enslaved individuals are treated as property rather than human beings, with no legal protection or recourse.
  4. Family Separation:
    • Emotional trauma: Families are often torn apart, causing immense emotional suffering and trauma.
    • Control over reproduction: Enslaved individuals have no control over their reproductive choices, with children often becoming property of their owners.
  5. Violence and Abuse:
    • Physical and psychological harm: Enslaved individuals are subjected to physical violence, abuse, and psychological torment.
    • Fear and intimidation: The constant threat of violence is used to maintain control and obedience.

In essence, slavery is a system that completely erases individual liberty. It denies individuals the right to make choices about their own lives, work, and relationships. It forces them into a state of servitude, subjecting them to the absolute control of their owners. This is the most extreme form of government control, as it not only restricts individual liberty but also dehumanizes and exploits individuals.

Indentured Servitude is the current state of the American population.

We are inexorably moving toward slavery:

  • Individuals are controlled through excessive regulations and law. Every person unknowingly commits at least three felonies every day. This is a denial of basic rights.
  • “Choice” has been removed from our daily lives. The government tells us what to eat and drink, what to buy, and how to live our lives.
  • Government holds the threat of violence and imprisonment over the heads of the population. People are imprisoned for voicing their opinion if it is not the official point of view of the current regime. This is violence and abuse.
  • Individual sovereignty no longer exists. Each of us owes our income to the government. Which means our “work” is for a “master” dwelling in the government. This is economic exploitation and forced labor.
  • Government intervention in the marketplace is rampant, the Federal Reserve creates bubbles and recessions at a whim.
  • Government intervention in our personal lives is excessive, telling us who can marry.
  • The authoritarians tell us what our morals should be, as the “woke” movement tells u what is acceptable thinking.
  • Those who disagree with the authoritarians are called “a basket of deplorables”.
  • Large corporations collude with the government to fix prices and force out competition. This is corporatism.
  • Regulatory agencies, that were not approved by the Constitution, rule over the lives of everyone, as agencies tell you exactly how to build your house.
  • Government employees refer to the money in their coffers as “their” money, when in truth it belongs to the taxpayers.
  • In the name of security, government constantly increase both surveillance and police presence. We are in the beginning stages of a police state.

Wake up America!!!

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Happy Birthday!

September 4, 2024 / / 0 Comments

“Every year on your birthday, you get a chance to start new.”

-Sammy Hagar

It’s been a year since I started this blog… WOOT!

Let’s review the reasons for creating this blog:

  • The United States is now an “aggressive irrational idiocracy”
  • Logic and reasoning have been thrown out for feelings
  • People lack critical thinking skills
  • Logical fallacies and cognitive biases abound
  • Individual research is non existent

Ah, hyperbole and overgeneralization, but these points are arguably still valid.

Over the past year I have:

  • Covered 11 cognitive biases, how to recognize them and avoid them
  • Covered 13 logical falllacies, how to recognize them and avoid them
  • Started a series on a christian libertarian based view of the political spectrum

Only more and better to come!

-Dr. Rob

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Political system isometric icon with monarch on throne and kneeling people on white background isolated vector illustration

Very Appealing

September 3, 2024 / / 0 Comments

“Truth for authority, not authority for truth.”

— Lucretia Mott

Logical Fallacies: Appeal to Authority and Appeal to Tradition

Logical fallacies are common errors in reasoning that can undermine the strength of an argument.

Appeal to Authority

What is it? An appeal to authority occurs when someone argues that a statement must be true because it is made by a respected or knowledgeable person. While experts can provide valuable insights, simply citing their authority without evidence or sound reasoning is fallacious.

Example:

  • “You should believe in climate change because Al Gore says it’s real.”

Why it’s fallacious:

  • Expertise doesn’t guarantee accuracy: Even experts can make mistakes or be influenced by biases.
  • Lack of evidence: Simply citing an authority figure doesn’t provide evidence to support the claim.
  • Circular reasoning: If the authority figure’s credibility is based on their belief in the claim, it becomes circular reasoning.

How to avoid it:

  • Examine the evidence: Evaluate the argument based on the supporting evidence, not just the source.
  • Consider the expertise: Assess whether the authority figure has relevant expertise in the field.
  • Look for alternative perspectives: Seek out information from multiple sources to get a balanced view.

Appeal to Tradition

What is it? An appeal to tradition occurs when someone argues that something is true or should be done because it has been done in the past or is a tradition. This fallacy assumes that tradition is inherently good or correct, regardless of its merits.

Example:

  • “We should continue to use traditional teaching methods because they’ve worked for generations.”

Why it’s fallacious:

  • Changing times: Traditions may not be relevant or effective in modern contexts.
  • Lack of evidence: Simply because something has been done in the past doesn’t mean it’s the best way to do it.
  • Preservation of status quo: Appealing to tradition can be used to resist progress or change.

How to avoid it:

  • Evaluate the merits: Assess whether the tradition is still relevant and effective in the current situation.
  • Consider alternatives: Explore new approaches that might be more beneficial.
  • Avoid emotional appeals: Focus on logical arguments based on evidence rather than relying on nostalgia or sentiment.

By understanding these fallacies, you can better evaluate arguments and avoid being swayed by faulty reasoning.

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Part Deux…

August 19, 2024 / / 0 Comments

So we started with a scale showing the general types of government against personal freedom. Now let’s add social and economic freedoms.

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Term Definitions:

  • Capitalism is an economic system based on private ownership of the means of production and their operation for profit. It is characterized by free markets, competition, and the pursuit of individual self-interest
    • Anarcho-capitalism is a political philosophy advocating for the elimination of the state and the establishment of a society based entirely on voluntary interactions and free-market capitalism. It proposes that all services, even those traditionally provided by governments (like law enforcement and defense), would be provided by private entities competing in a free market.
    • Laissez-faire capitalism is an economic system where the government has minimal intervention in the market. It emphasizes free markets, private property rights, and individual economic freedom, believing that the market will naturally regulate itself and lead to optimal outcomes.
    • Crony capitalism is an economic system where businesses thrive not primarily through free-market competition and innovation, but due to close relationships with government officials. These relationships lead to favorable treatment like tax breaks, subsidies, or relaxed regulations, creating an uneven playing field that stifles competition and benefits the politically connected.
    • Corporatism is a political and economic system where the state organizes and controls society into corporate groups representing different sectors of the economy (labor, business, etc.), aiming to achieve social harmony and control over the economy.
  • Socialism is a political and economic philosophy advocating for social ownership of the means of production and distribution of goods, typically through a democratically elected government, with the goal of achieving greater social justice and economic equality.
    • Market socialism is an economic system that combines social ownership of the means of production (e.g., worker-owned cooperatives, public ownership) with a market-based allocation of goods and services, aiming to balance efficiency with social justice and equality.
    • Democratic socialism is a political philosophy advocating for a democratic political system alongside a socialist economic system, with an emphasis on social ownership and worker control of the means of production, aiming to achieve greater social justice and reduce economic inequality.
    • Communism is a political and economic ideology advocating for a classless, stateless society where all property and resources are owned in common and everyone contributes and receives according to their ability and needs.
  • An economic market is a system where buyers and sellers interact to exchange goods and services. Prices are determined by the forces of supply and demand, with minimal government intervention in a free market.
    • A free market is an economic system where the prices of goods and services are determined by supply and demand, with minimal government intervention. Buyers and sellers are free to trade with each other without interference.
    • A limited free market is an economic system where the forces of supply and demand primarily guide the production and exchange of goods and services, but with some government intervention and regulation to address market failures, protect consumers and workers, and promote social welfare.
    • A government-controlled market, also known as a command economy, is an economic system where the government has significant control over the production, distribution, and pricing of goods and services. It decides what to produce, how much to produce, and who gets the products.

As can be seen the spectrum is still from freedom to slavery. As capitalism maximizes freedom, socialism and communism maximize control over freedom. Individual liberty erodes away into the communal abrogation of all liberty. Socialism is based on a belief in collectivism where the individual needs are subservient to the needs of the group or community. Because of this, individual liberty is rejected and replaced with emphasis on social justice and reduction of inequality.

Who determines what is social justice? What are the determinates of equality? What is social ownership? The group or community! Thus the “group or community”, becomes the arbiter of values. These values are then placed upon the individual without express consent, through the use of force. There is a presumption that values of the larger group are somehow greater morally than that of the individual. Along with this comes the assumption that the individuals are not as smart as the totality of the collective so therefore the larger body must take care of the “poor and dumb”. The moral superiority of the “majority” is a cornerstone of socialist systems. And the only way that these moral superiors can ensure equality and social justice is through the use of force.

In all historical accounts of socialist systems, the “group or community” devolves into an elite group of individuals who take on the role of a governing body. This small group then states they are the “voice of the people.” The “majority” is actually a “minority.” Because of the belief that they speak for all, they become either an oligarchy or sole dictatorship. The power they hold allows them to make decisions over the intricacies of the individual, thus the loss of all individual freedom. Socialism ALWAYS leads to totalitarianism.

So where are we now in America? We are in the corporatist, democratic socialist, and limited free market section of the spectrum and heading toward socialist authoritarianism. How can I say this?

  • Government intervention in the market place is rampant
  • Government intervention in our personal lives is excessive
  • The “woke” and politically correct movements tell us how to speak
  • The authoritarians tell us what our morals should be
  • Those who disagree with the authoritarians are called “a basket of deplorables”
  • Large corporations collude with the government to fix prices and force out competition
  • There are so many laws that every person in the United States commits at least 3 felonies per day
  • Regulatory agencies, that were not approved by the Constitution, rule over the lives of everyone
  • Government employees refer to the money in their coffers as “their” money, when in truth it belongs to the taxpayers

In the next post we will “back it up” with examples.

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Back It Up

August 1, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Before we go any further I want to give the references that I have used in building my version of a political spectrum. This way the reader can see what lead my directionality of thought. These sites and studies do not in any way support the content of this website.

  • https://www.britannica.com/topic/political-spectrum
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_spectrum
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolan_Chart
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncretic_politics
  •  Heywood, Andrew (2017). Political Ideologies: An Introduction (6th ed.). Basingstoke: Macmillan International Higher Education. pp. 14–17.
  • Fenna, Alan; Robbins, Jane; Summers, John (2013). Government Politics in Australia. Robbins, Jane., Summers, John. (10th ed.). Melbourne: Pearson Higher Education AU. pp. 126 f. 
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Eysenck
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Political_Compass
  • https://theobjectivestandard.com/2012/06/political-left-and-right-properly-defined/
  • https://fourkingowl.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-political-spectrum.html
  • https://kgov.com/political-spectrum-charts
  • https://ponderingprinciples.com/2017/08/16/the-alt-right-isnt-right/
  • https://investingsdontlie.com/2021/05/26/the-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/
  • https://soundcloud.com/askthefounders/understanding-the-political-spectrum
  • https://cdn.cato.org/libertarianismdotorg/books/ThreeLanguagesOfPolitics.pdf

A little light reading, eh?

Capitalism = Freedom…Socialism = Slavery

July 19, 2024 / / 0 Comments

“Socialism means slavery.”

Lord Acton

Alright, here we go… 🙂

Let’s start at the center of my model and then we can grow outward. The center shows the general types of government on the top and the matching freedom to slavery scale on the bottom.

Part 1 1
  • Anarchy is a political philosophy and social condition characterized by the absence of government or centralized authority. In an anarchist society, individuals and communities would govern themselves through voluntary cooperation and mutual aid.
  • Minarchism is a libertarian political philosophy advocating for a minimal state with limited functions, primarily focused on protecting individual rights and providing essential services like law enforcement, defense, and courts.
  • Limited government is a political philosophy that advocates for a government with restricted powers, clearly defined by a constitution or other legal framework, to protect individual liberties and prevent tyranny.
  • A mixed economy is an economic system that combines elements of both free-market capitalism and government intervention. It allows for private ownership and operation of businesses while also permitting government regulation and social welfare programs.
  • Social democracy is a political ideology that supports a mixed economy, combining capitalist principles with significant government intervention to promote social welfare, reduce inequality, and ensure basic necessities like healthcare and education for all.
  • Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by strong central power, limited political freedoms, and suppression of dissent. It often involves a single ruler or ruling group with unchecked authority.
  • Totalitarianism is a political system in which the state holds total authority over society and seeks to control all aspects of public and private life wherever possible.
  • In theory, anarchy offers the ultimate individual freedom, as there are no government-imposed laws or restrictions. However, this also means there is no central authority to protect rights or enforce agreements, potentially leading to chaos and vulnerability to exploitation. The degree of freedom in practice would largely depend on the social norms and informal rules established within communities.
  • Indentured servitude is a labor system where an individual contracts to work for a specific period (typically 4-7 years) in exchange for transportation, food, clothing, shelter, and sometimes freedom dues at the end of their contract. While not slavery, it involved a loss of freedom and was often harsh.
  • Slavery is a system in which individuals are treated as property, owned by others, and deprived of their freedom and basic human rights. They are forced to work without pay and are subject to the will of their owners.

Notice the correlation between freedom and government presence. In both our personal and social lives increasing the amount of government increases the amount of dependence upon government. Thus when we are partially dependent it would be indentured servitude and under a totalitarian state we are totally controlled (owned) by government.

The United States has actually moved along this line since inception. While we began as a limited government we have moved along the line and are now a social democracy with a mixed economy. Our current government would also be considered tilting toward authoritarianism.

Next post…Back that up…

And a Couple of Logical Fallacies…

July 13, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Composition/Division & Begging the Question: Sneaky Flaws in Your Logic

Have you ever been bamboozled by an argument that seemed convincing at first, but later realized it didn’t quite hold up? Chances are, you encountered a logical fallacy. These sneaky flaws in reasoning can trip up even the most astute thinkers. Today, we’ll shine a spotlight on two common culprits: the fallacy of composition/division and the fallacy of begging the question.

Fallacy of Composition/Division: What’s True for One Isn’t Always True for All

This fallacy occurs when we assume that what’s true for a part of something must also be true for the whole (composition) or that what’s true for the whole must be true for each individual part (division).

Examples:

  • Composition: “Each brick in that wall is light. Therefore, the entire wall must be light.” (Nope, not if it’s a really big wall!)
  • Division: “This team is the best in the league. Therefore, every player on the team must be the best at their position.” (Not necessarily, teamwork and strategy play a role too.)

Why it’s tricky: Sometimes, what’s true for the part is true for the whole, and vice versa. But the key is to look for evidence and avoid jumping to conclusions based on incomplete information.

Fallacy of Begging the Question: Circular Arguments That Go Nowhere

This fallacy, also known as circular reasoning, happens when an argument’s conclusion is already assumed in its premise. It’s like trying to prove a point by restating it in different words.

Examples:

  • “Paranormal activity is real because I’ve experienced things that can only be described as paranormal.” (The premise assumes the existence of the paranormal, which is what you’re trying to prove.)
  • “The Bible is true because it’s the word of God.” (This only works if you already believe in God and the Bible’s divine origin.)

Why it’s tricky: These arguments can feel convincing because they tap into our existing beliefs. But they lack independent evidence and don’t actually prove anything new.

Spotting and Avoiding These Fallacies

  1. Break it down: Examine each part of an argument carefully. Does the conclusion logically follow from the premises?
  2. Look for evidence: Don’t just take claims at face value. Seek out supporting data and facts.
  3. Challenge assumptions: Question the underlying assumptions of an argument. Are they valid?
  4. Watch out for circularity: If an argument seems to be going in circles, it’s likely begging the question.

By being aware of these common fallacies, you can sharpen your critical thinking skills, avoid getting fooled by faulty reasoning, and build stronger, more persuasive arguments of your own.

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A Few More Biases

July 13, 2024 / / 0 Comments

“Give someone who has faith in you a placebo and call it a hair growing pill, anti-nausea pill or whatever, and you will be amazed at how many respond to your therapy.“

Bernie Siegel

The Placebo Effect & Optimism Bias: Your Brain’s Tricky Power Plays

Ever popped a sugar pill and felt better? Or convinced yourself a project will be a breeze, only to face a mountain of challenges? You’ve likely experienced the placebo effect and optimism bias, two cognitive quirks that reveal the surprising power of our minds. Let’s dive into how they work and what they mean for our lives.

The Placebo Effect: Mind Over Medicine (Sometimes)

The placebo effect is a fascinating phenomenon where a fake treatment – be it a sugar pill, saline injection, or even a sham surgery – can lead to real improvements in health. It’s not just about “thinking yourself better.” The placebo effect can trigger physiological changes, like reducing pain, boosting mood, or even altering immune responses.

How does it work? While the exact mechanisms are still under investigation, it’s believed that the placebo effect taps into our brain’s reward system, releasing feel-good chemicals like dopamine and endorphins. Our expectations and beliefs also play a huge role – if we believe a treatment will work, our bodies may respond accordingly.

Optimism Bias: The Rose-Colored Glasses Syndrome

Optimism bias is our tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the chances of negative ones. We believe we’re less likely to get sick, divorced, or fired than others. And we think we’re more likely to land that dream job, win the lottery, or live a long and happy life.

This bias isn’t always a bad thing. A healthy dose of optimism can motivate us, reduce stress, and even improve our health. But when taken too far, it can lead to risky decisions, disappointment, and a failure to prepare for potential setbacks.

The Upside and Downside of These Biases

Placebo Effect:

  • Upside: Can be harnessed in medical treatments to enhance healing and reduce reliance on drugs.
  • Downside: Can complicate research trials and lead to false conclusions about treatment effectiveness.

Optimism Bias:

  • Upside: Motivates us to pursue goals, builds resilience, and fosters a positive outlook.
  • Downside: Can lead to underestimating risks, poor decision-making, and unpreparedness for challenges.

So, What Can We Do?

  1. Be aware: Recognizing these biases is the first step towards managing them.
  2. Question your assumptions: Challenge your overly optimistic or pessimistic views.
  3. Seek realistic information: Gather evidence to make informed decisions rather than relying on gut feelings.
  4. Practice gratitude: Focus on the positive aspects of your life while acknowledging potential challenges.
  5. Seek support: Talk to friends, family, or a therapist to gain perspective and manage expectations.

Understanding the placebo effect and optimism bias can empower us to make better decisions, navigate challenges, and harness the power of our minds for our well-being. It’s a reminder that while our brains can sometimes play tricks on us, we can also use our understanding of these biases to our advantage.

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